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Abridged version
Reference no. 9-606-004
Prize winner
Compact case
Published by:
Harvard Business Publishing (2005)
19 July 2005
2 pages
Data source:
Field research


Freemark Abbey must decide whether to harvest in view of the possibility of rain. Rain could damage the crop but delaying the harvest would be risky. On the other hand, rain could be beneficial and greatly increase the value of the resulting wine. This decision is further complicated by the fact that ripe Riesling grapes can be vinified in two ways, resulting in two different styles of wine. Their relative prices would depend on the uncertain preference of consumers two years later, when the wine is bottled and sold.


Managerial economics; Risk management; Decision analysis; Decision trees
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