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Technical note
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Reference no. UVA-QA-0772
Subject category: Case Method and Specialist Management Disciplines
Authors: Yael Grushka-Cockayne (Darden School of Business, University of Virginia); Kenneth (Casey) Lichtendahl (Darden School of Business, University of Virginia)
Published by: Darden Business Publishing
Originally published in: 2011
Version: 12 September 2014
Revision date: 13-Oct-2014
Length: 5 pages
Data source: Published sources
Topics: Log scoring rule; Brier scoring rule; Fractile Quantile; Percentile; Probability mass function; Probability density function; Management science; Forecasting; Quantitative analysis
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Abstract

This technical note, based on the more comprehensive note, 'Eliciting and Evaluating Expert Forecasts', provides a streamlined presentation of Brier and log scores as tools for assessing forecasting records among a pool of experts. The note is designed to be used in conjunction with a forecasting exercise.
Technical note
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Reference no. UVA-QA-0734
Subject category: Case Method and Specialist Management Disciplines
Authors: Kenneth (Casey) Lichtendahl (Darden School of Business, University of Virginia)
Published by: Darden Business Publishing
Originally published in: 2009
Version: 27 July 2010
Revision date: 24-Aug-2011
Length: 9 pages
Data source: Published sources
Topics: Probability forecasts; Quantiles; Value-at-risk; Scoring rules
View full details

About

Abstract

This technical note, based on the more comprehensive note, 'Eliciting and Evaluating Expert Forecasts', provides a streamlined presentation of Brier and log scores as tools for assessing forecasting records among a pool of experts. The note is designed to be used in conjunction with a forecasting exercise.

Related

Technical note
-
Reference no. UVA-QA-0734
Subject category: Case Method and Specialist Management Disciplines
Authors: Kenneth (Casey) Lichtendahl (Darden School of Business, University of Virginia)
Published by: Darden Business Publishing
Originally published in: 2009
Version: 27 July 2010
Revision date: 24-Aug-2011
Length: 9 pages
Data source: Published sources
Topics: Probability forecasts; Quantiles; Value-at-risk; Scoring rules
View full details