Subject category:
Economics, Politics and Business Environment
Published by:
INSEAD
Version: 06.2018
Abstract
This exercise demonstrates one difficulty in distinguishing between luck and skill. Participants individually roll dice to simulate the performance of fund managers. Some fund managers have a greater chance of success than others, but the lower performers are more plentiful. The chance element in observed performance makes it challenging to determine a given manager's type (a genius or a dart-throwing monkey).
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Abstract
This exercise demonstrates one difficulty in distinguishing between luck and skill. Participants individually roll dice to simulate the performance of fund managers. Some fund managers have a greater chance of success than others, but the lower performers are more plentiful. The chance element in observed performance makes it challenging to determine a given manager's type (a genius or a dart-throwing monkey).
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