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Abstract

Even in severe economic downturns and recessions, some companies are able to gain advantage. In the past four downturns, 14% of large companies increased both their sales growth rate and their EBIT margin. A shock like the Covid-19 pandemic can produce lasting changes in customer behavior. To survive and thrive in a crisis, begin by examining how people are spending their time and money. Challenge traditional ideas and use data to actively seek out anomalies and surprises. Next, adjust your business model to reflect behavioral changes, considering what the new trends might mean for how you create and deliver value, whom you need to partner with, and who your customers should be. Finally, put your money where your analysis takes you and be prepared to make more-aggressive, dynamic investments.

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Abstract

Even in severe economic downturns and recessions, some companies are able to gain advantage. In the past four downturns, 14% of large companies increased both their sales growth rate and their EBIT margin. A shock like the Covid-19 pandemic can produce lasting changes in customer behavior. To survive and thrive in a crisis, begin by examining how people are spending their time and money. Challenge traditional ideas and use data to actively seek out anomalies and surprises. Next, adjust your business model to reflect behavioral changes, considering what the new trends might mean for how you create and deliver value, whom you need to partner with, and who your customers should be. Finally, put your money where your analysis takes you and be prepared to make more-aggressive, dynamic investments.

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