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Management article
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Reference no. 87107
Published by: Harvard Business Publishing
Published in: "Harvard Business Review", 1987

Abstract

When managers make decisions, they think forward and backward whether they know it or not. Thinking backward means looking for patterns, linking events, and searching for metaphors that explain causes and effects. Thinking forward entails weighing variables, making calculations, and preparing alternative plans. You will think backward well if you use more than one metaphor to describe a situation, resist the temptation to infer a cause from just one clue, and sometimes look for unexpected causes to explain effects. You will think forward well if you learn when to rely on the computations and models of computer science and how to compensate for the errors they produce.

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Abstract

When managers make decisions, they think forward and backward whether they know it or not. Thinking backward means looking for patterns, linking events, and searching for metaphors that explain causes and effects. Thinking forward entails weighing variables, making calculations, and preparing alternative plans. You will think backward well if you use more than one metaphor to describe a situation, resist the temptation to infer a cause from just one clue, and sometimes look for unexpected causes to explain effects. You will think forward well if you learn when to rely on the computations and models of computer science and how to compensate for the errors they produce.

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