Published by:
Harvard Business Publishing
Length: 17 pages
Topics:
Economic analysis; Forecasting
Abstract
Traditional forecasting techniques, which rest on the assumption that tomorrow''s world will be much like today''s, are inadequate in a fluid and turbulent business environment. When forecasts made by Royal Dutch/Shell in the late 1960s signaled major disruptions in the world oil market, company planners realized they needed a more realistic way to think about the future. Beginning in 1971, the company decided to develop a series of scenarios to explore the future business environment. By listening to planners'' analysis, Shell''s management was prepared for the 1973 oil crisis. The power of scenarios becomes evident when the world changes. McKinsey Award Winner.
About
Abstract
Traditional forecasting techniques, which rest on the assumption that tomorrow''s world will be much like today''s, are inadequate in a fluid and turbulent business environment. When forecasts made by Royal Dutch/Shell in the late 1960s signaled major disruptions in the world oil market, company planners realized they needed a more realistic way to think about the future. Beginning in 1971, the company decided to develop a series of scenarios to explore the future business environment. By listening to planners'' analysis, Shell''s management was prepared for the 1973 oil crisis. The power of scenarios becomes evident when the world changes. McKinsey Award Winner.