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Management article
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Reference no. 82511
Published by: Harvard Business Publishing
Published in: "Harvard Business Review", 1982

Abstract

Decision analysts'' new technology combines statistical decision theory with insights from psychology, economics, and social science. Decision tree analysis by the AIL Division of Cutler-Hammer, Inc. shows how analysts specify the elements of the tree, assign each element a value, and calculate the results to determine whether to develop a patent. Probabilistic forecasting has the advantage of not limiting forecasting to extrapolation from the past. It combines assessments of judgment with data. Multiattribute utility analysis specifies all factors that affect a choice, allows trade-offs to be made among those factors, and indicates the alternative offering the best balance.

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Abstract

Decision analysts'' new technology combines statistical decision theory with insights from psychology, economics, and social science. Decision tree analysis by the AIL Division of Cutler-Hammer, Inc. shows how analysts specify the elements of the tree, assign each element a value, and calculate the results to determine whether to develop a patent. Probabilistic forecasting has the advantage of not limiting forecasting to extrapolation from the past. It combines assessments of judgment with data. Multiattribute utility analysis specifies all factors that affect a choice, allows trade-offs to be made among those factors, and indicates the alternative offering the best balance.

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