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Published by: Harvard Business Publishing
Originally published in: 2007
Version: 10 January 2008
Length: 8 pages
Data source: Generalised experience

Abstract

The announcement of merger or acquisition conveys new information to the capital markets. This note describes how the stock prices of a Buyer and Target behave after the announcement of a deal. First, for an all-stock deal that is certain to go through, the note defines accouchement effects and describes the fundamental arbitrage relationship between Target and Buyer stock prices. It shows how post-announcement prices may be used to infer the market's estimate of synergies. It then explains how the betas of the two companies change post-announcement and the arbitrage relationship between prices in a cash-and-stock deal. Finally, it defines event risk and explains how it affects the prices of the Buyer and the Target.

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Abstract

The announcement of merger or acquisition conveys new information to the capital markets. This note describes how the stock prices of a Buyer and Target behave after the announcement of a deal. First, for an all-stock deal that is certain to go through, the note defines accouchement effects and describes the fundamental arbitrage relationship between Target and Buyer stock prices. It shows how post-announcement prices may be used to infer the market's estimate of synergies. It then explains how the betas of the two companies change post-announcement and the arbitrage relationship between prices in a cash-and-stock deal. Finally, it defines event risk and explains how it affects the prices of the Buyer and the Target.

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